Research Papers

We examined the deterrent effect of imprisonment on criminal behavior, considering the impact of incarceration as a crime prevention strategy.

We aimed to provide empirical evidence on the effectiveness of imprisonment as a deterrent, contributing to the ongoing policy debate on crime control strategies.

Our findings can inform the discussion on the role of imprisonment in controlling crime, offering insights that can guide policymakers in developing evidence-based criminal justice policies.

We conducted a field experiment to reduce information, administrative, stigma, and procrastination costs associated with the Advance EITC, and simultaneously encouraged 401(k) savings to observe their effects on participation rates.

We aimed to understand the low participation rates in the Advance EITC and to explore whether encouraging 401(k) savings would influence the decision to participate in the Advance EITC, shedding light on the motives behind these financial choices.

Our findings suggest that EITC recipients actively choose to forgo the Advance, and the lack of increased participation with 401(k) encouragement challenges the notion of long-term forced savings motives, highlighting the need for further research into the underlying preferences and behaviors.

We examined James Tobin’s contributions to growth theory over more than four decades, focusing on his emphasis on portfolio substitution between money and capital. We explored how his work stood apart from other neoclassical growth models and its relationship to the evolution of modern growth economics.

We conducted this examination to highlight the unique aspects of Tobin’s contributions to long-run growth theory. His focus on portfolio substitution provided a distinctive perspective on the non-neutrality of money, which diverged from traditional neoclassical models and influenced modern growth economics.

We want to shed light on the distinctive and influential contributions of James Tobin to growth theory. Understanding his emphasis on portfolio substitution and its implications for the non-neutrality of money enhances our comprehension of the complexities in long-run economic growth and informs contemporary economic thought and policy.

We discussed the history and usage of cross-country regressions in modern growth economics, examining their controversial interpretations and the exaggerated support for various new growth theories. We also highlighted their valuable role in identifying modern stylized facts about growth behavior.

We undertook this study to address the controversy surrounding cross-country regressions and to correct the misconceptions from early interpretations. By doing so, we aim to clarify their role and utility in empirical growth analysis and modern economic theory.

We aim to provide a critical reassessment of cross-country regressions, a fundamental tool in growth economics. By clarifying their appropriate use and significance, we contribute to more accurate and reliable empirical analyses, which are essential for understanding and fostering economic growth.

This chapter provides an overview of current practices in the econometric analysis of economic growth by describing some of the main methodologies that have been developed to study growth, major empirical findings, and the relationship between econometric analyses and growth theories.

Growth econometrics has long been an active field of research, especially since the mid 1980s, but the position of this field within economics remains uneasy. There are observers who regard this form of evidence as essentially inadmissible. It is important to understand why this is so. We will review the problems in this research in detail, but argue that there are some grounds for optimism.

The abiding interest of the study of aggregate productivity, whether in levels or growth rates, perhaps speaks for itself. Seeking to understand the wealth of nations is one of the oldest and most important research agendas in the entire discipline. At the same time, it is also one of the areas in which genuine progress seems hardest to achieve.

We provided a general description of the relationship between individual decision problems and aggregate crime regressions. The analysis is designed to elucidate the behavioral and statistical assumptions implicit in the use of aggregate crime regressions for both the analysis of crime determinants and counterfactual policy evaluation.

We wanted to examine the construction and interpretation of aggregate crime regressions to highlight some limitations of using these regressions and, in particular, indicate how empirical findings may be overinterpreted when careful attention is not given to the link between the aggregate data and individual behavior.

Despite recent efforts to employ microeconomic data and natural experiments, aggregate crime regressions continue to play a significant role in criminological analyses.

We describe a set of trade-offs that policymakers face with respect to fluctuations at different frequencies.

Our analysis differs from previous studies in that our objective is to understand to what extent a policymaker is forced, when choosing a feedback rule to stabilize the economy, to exacerbate volatility at some frequencies to reduce them at others, or whether it is possible to reduce volatility at all frequencies.

The theory of design limits provides a mathematical framework for understanding the full range of temporal implications of alternative policies. The design limits in the control theory literature are important in understanding what stabilization policies do and also possess implications for policy design in the presence of policymaker ignorance.

We investigated the empirical evidence for various growth theories under conditions of model uncertainty. Using model averaging methods, we assessed the roles of fundamental growth theories, macroeconomic policy effects, regional heterogeneity, and parameter heterogeneity in explaining aggregate growth.

We aimed to address the uncertainty regarding the correct growth model and to evaluate the strength of empirical evidence for different growth theories. By doing so, we sought to understand the limitations of cross-country growth regressions in adjudicating these theories.

We highlight that cross-country growth regressions have limited capacity to determine the relative importance of alternative growth theories. Our findings underscore the significance of macroeconomic policy effects and regional heterogeneity, suggesting a need for more nuanced models and approaches in growth economics research.

We surveyed the recent literature on growth empirics, comparing modern empirical findings and methodologies to the traditional growth accounting analyses from the 1960s and 1970s. We evaluated new methodologies, findings, and the critical role of Total Factor Productivity (TFP), statistical convergence, and the search for robust growth determinants.

We aimed to assess the progress and limitations of modern growth empirics compared to traditional growth accounting. By doing so, we sought to identify the areas where modern methodologies have advanced our understanding and where substantive conclusions remain elusive.

Bridging the gap between modern empirical claims and growth theories is crucial. Unifying statistical findings into a coherent growth model and connecting them to economically meaningful notions of convergence can enhance our understanding of growth dynamics and inform effective policy-making.

This paper compares the performance of different policy rules, focusing on simple feedback rules versus rules that are optimal, given knowledge of the correct economic structure and the appropriate loss function for the policymaker. First, we compare rule performance when the correct model is not known. Second, we compare rule performance with respect to the frequency-specific behavior for variables of interest.

We are interested in assessing the case that can be made for optimal rules as opposed to simple rules for policy, focusing on monetary policy rules.

The case for optimal policy rules is weakened when one considers the performance of the rules in the presence of model uncertainty and with respect to frequency-specific effects.