Research Papers

We surveyed the recent literature on growth empirics, comparing modern empirical findings and methodologies to the traditional growth accounting analyses from the 1960s and 1970s. We evaluated new methodologies, findings, and the critical role of Total Factor Productivity (TFP), statistical convergence, and the search for robust growth determinants.

We aimed to assess the progress and limitations of modern growth empirics compared to traditional growth accounting. By doing so, we sought to identify the areas where modern methodologies have advanced our understanding and where substantive conclusions remain elusive.

Bridging the gap between modern empirical claims and growth theories is crucial. Unifying statistical findings into a coherent growth model and connecting them to economically meaningful notions of convergence can enhance our understanding of growth dynamics and inform effective policy-making.

This paper compares the performance of different policy rules, focusing on simple feedback rules versus rules that are optimal, given knowledge of the correct economic structure and the appropriate loss function for the policymaker. First, we compare rule performance when the correct model is not known. Second, we compare rule performance with respect to the frequency-specific behavior for variables of interest.

We are interested in assessing the case that can be made for optimal rules as opposed to simple rules for policy, focusing on monetary policy rules.

The case for optimal policy rules is weakened when one considers the performance of the rules in the presence of model uncertainty and with respect to frequency-specific effects.

We attempted to develop a framework for the overall evaluation of racial profiling as a public policy.

We took a new approach by focusing on ethical issues that arise when profiling occurs while considering the efficacy of racial profiling with respect to law enforcement goals in a context in which law enforcement objectives represent a subset of the desiderata for public policy.

Our goal was to explicitly address the full range of implications that racial profiling has for society.

We explore ways to integrate model uncertainty into policy evaluation. We describe a general framework that includes both model averaging methods and some measures that describe whether policies and their consequences are model dependent. These general ideas are then applied to assess simple monetary policy rules for some standard New Keynesian specifications.

While model averaging is a powerful tool in addressing model uncertainty, a policymaker may want more information than simply a summary statistic of the effects of a policy on outcomes where model dependence has been integrated. An innovation in this paper is moving beyond model averaging methods in analyzing policies when model uncertainty is present.

Within macroeconomics, increasing attention is being given to the positive and normative implications of model uncertainty.

We developed a general framework for conducting local robustness analysis, focusing on calculating control solutions that are optimal against the least favorable model close to an initial baseline. We characterized Nash and Stackelberg equilibria for control choices and applied our formulation to discrete time control problems using frequency domain methods.

We aimed to address the need for robust control solutions in environments with model uncertainty. By developing a framework for local robustness analysis, we sought to provide optimal control strategies that remain effective under varying conditions close to a baseline model.

Our results highlight the fundamental limits to the efficacy of controls in uncertain environments. Understanding these limits and characterizing robust control solutions have significant implications for policy-making, particularly in the context of monetary policy, where robust and effective controls are crucial for economic stability.

Our paper is designed to consider some of the general issues that need to be addressed in evaluating racial profiling as a public policy question. Placing the discussion in the context of efficiency/equity trade-offs, this paper discusses profiling in the context of police traffic stops where the intent is to identify drug carriers.

While there is a growing body of theoretical and empirical work on profiling, relatively little attention has been paid to integrating efficiency and equity considerations in an overall assessment.

Racial profiling continues to be a contentious issue in American society. While official policing policies have in many places banned profiling, the impact of such regulations is unknown.

We described approaches to macroeconomic policy evaluation under uncertainty about the economic environment’s structure. Our methods are designed to address several forms of uncertainty, such as ambiguity about the appropriate economic theory or functional forms required for statistical analysis. We incorporated model uncertainty into formal statistical inference methods to facilitate robust policy evaluation.

We aimed to provide a robust framework for policy evaluation in macroeconomic contexts where fundamental disagreements exist regarding determinants of the problem under study. Recognizing the limitations of traditional calibration methods, we sought to develop an approach that incorporates model uncertainty into policy evaluation.

Incorporating model uncertainty into policy evaluation enhances the robustness and reliability of macroeconomic policies. Our approach allows for more informed decision-making in the presence of theoretical and structural uncertainties, ultimately contributing to more effective and adaptive economic policies.

We provided a critical overview of the literature on the convergence hypothesis, examining why statistical tests have not adequately addressed the notion of economic convergence. We proposed new research directions that focus on cross-country heterogeneity in the growth process to better understand convergence as an economic phenomenon.

We aimed to identify the shortcomings of existing empirical research on convergence and to suggest new approaches that explicitly consider cross-country differences. This approach seeks to enhance the understanding of convergence by addressing economic relevance more directly.

By focusing on cross-country heterogeneity, our proposed research directions can offer a more accurate and meaningful analysis of economic convergence. This improved understanding is essential for formulating effective economic policies that promote growth and reduce disparities between countries.

We provided an overview of an approach that integrates sociological ideas into economic models of individual behavior, emphasizing the influence of social context and interdependences on decision-making. We based our analysis on the framework developed by Brock and Durlauf (2001, forthcoming), assessing empirical evidence and exploring policy implications.

We aimed to bridge the gap between economics and sociology by incorporating social influences into economic models. This integration helps to provide a more comprehensive understanding of how social factors shape individual choices and economic outcomes.

Integrating sociological perspectives into economic models enhances the explanatory power of these models regarding individual behavior and social interactions. This approach can inform more effective policies that address the complex interplay between social context and economic decisions.

We critically reviewed Robert Putnam’s influential work, “Bowling Alone,” focusing on its analysis of social capital in America. We assessed the book’s strengths and weaknesses, highlighting both its extensive documentation of community life and its conceptual and empirical shortcomings.

We aimed to evaluate “Bowling Alone” within the broader context of social capital literature, identifying its contributions and limitations. This evaluation helps to understand the validity and implications of Putnam’s claims about social capital’s role in socioeconomic phenomena.

Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of “Bowling Alone” is essential for assessing the broader social capital literature. By critically examining Putnam’s analysis, we can better gauge the importance of social capital in explaining socioeconomic outcomes and inform future research in this field.