Research Papers

We introduced a method to estimate the cost of adjusting earnings and the earnings elasticity with respect to the net-of-tax share, using bunching in the earnings distribution at convex budget set kinks before and after policy changes.

We sought to explore the relationship between tax policy changes and earnings adjustments, specifically focusing on the Social Security Earnings Test, to provide a clearer understanding of the behavioral responses to tax rate changes.

Our results highlight that adjustment costs can significantly dampen the short-run effects of changes in effective marginal tax rates, offering crucial insights for policymakers on the efficiency and impact of tax policy adjustments.

We employed a novel rank-based index of stratification to measure how occupational classes occupy distinct, non-overlapping, hierarchical layers in the US income distribution from 1980 to 2016.

We aimed to address the gap in empirical studies that focus on inequality rather than stratification. By developing a rank-based stratification index, we sought to accurately capture class stratification and provide insights into the structural dynamics of the US income distribution over time, enhancing the understanding of class structure and social stratification.

Our findings show a substantial increase in class stratification in the US from 1980 to 2016, driven by factors like income returns to education, deunionization, and deindustrialization. These results highlight growing economic divides based on occupational class, informing theories of class structure and guiding policies to reduce economic stratification and promote social mobility.

We developed a method to estimate the effect of kinked or notched budget sets on workers’ employment decisions and applied it to the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Annual Earnings Test (AET).

We aimed to understand how the AET, which reduces OASI benefits based on earnings, influences employment rates, using a Regression Kink Design and Social Security Administration data.

Our findings show that the AET significantly reduces employment, providing valuable insights for policymakers on the labor market effects of benefit reduction policies.

We explored an alternative regression-based method, regression-with-residuals (RWR), for estimating marginal effects of time-varying treatments on end-of-study continuous outcomes. This method was compared with inverse-probability-of-treatment-weighted (IPTW) estimation of a marginal structural model.

We aimed to address challenges in estimating marginal treatment effects with observational data, particularly when dealing with time-varying confounders affected by prior treatments.

Our findings suggest that RWR estimation of a constrained structural nested mean model may outperform IPTW estimation in certain scenarios for estimating marginal treatment effects of time-varying treatments on continuous outcomes.

We introduced a new method, regression with residuals, to estimate moderated causal effects in longitudinal studies where both treatment and effect moderators vary over time.

We aimed to address the limitations of traditional regression models in longitudinal settings, where time-varying moderators of future treatment can be influenced by prior treatment.

Our method provides a more accurate approach to understanding how individual characteristics modify the effects of treatments over time. This is crucial for social scientists seeking to identify the nuanced ways in which interventions impact different subgroups.

We developed a theory of social class based on workplace ownership and authority relations and examined its link to growth in personal income inequality since the 1980s.

We aimed to establish a theoretical framework linking social class to income inequality trends and empirically investigate these dynamics over time. By focusing on between-class income differences, class size variations, and income dispersion within classes, we sought to identify key factors driving the growth in personal income inequality.

Our findings reveal a significant increase of about 60% in between-class income differences since the 1980s, with the relative size of different social classes remaining stable. Decomposition analysis indicates that these income differences substantially contributed to rising personal income inequality, underscoring the importance of class-based perspectives in understanding economic disparities.

We examined the exclusion restriction assumption in interpreting IV estimates as a local average treatment effect (LATE) and highlighted cases where this assumption may be violated among inframarginal agents.

We aimed to identify and address potential biases in IV estimates due to violations of the exclusion restriction, which can affect the validity of LATE interpretations, especially among always- and never-takers.

Our findings underscore the need for careful consideration and potential adjustments in IV estimates to ensure accurate interpretations, thereby improving the reliability of econometric analyses involving heterogeneous treatment effects.

We conducted a field experiment to test theories of time-inconsistency, specifically the “Beta-Delta” model of present bias, in the context of saving decisions made by low-income tax filers.

We aimed to understand how present-biased preferences influence the decision to deposit tax refunds into illiquid accounts, providing insights into the tradeoff between immediate and delayed payments.

Our findings provide evidence of significant present bias in financial decisions, with an estimated annual discount rate of 164%, offering valuable implications for designing policies and interventions to encourage saving among low-income individuals.

We provide a systematic analysis of identification in linear social interactions models. We develop an incomplete information game that describes individual choices in the presence of social interactions.

The theoretical models used to study social interactions are distinct from the econometric environments in which identification is studied, while empirical work generally does not systematically exploit the implications of theory and econometrics for formulating data analyses. This paper aims to facilitate the integration of the theoretical, econometric, and empirical sides of the social interactions literature.

While the proposition that individuals are subject to social influence states the obvious, the study of social influences on individual behavior in economics is a relatively recent phenomenon. In the last two decades, however, a rich theoretical, econometric, and empirical literature in social economics, has emerged.

We investigated the mixed empirical evidence on the deterrent effect of capital punishment and potential explanations for these inconsistencies.

Our findings can contribute to the ongoing debate about capital punishment and inform policy decisions regarding its use as a criminal deterrent.

We shed light on the complexities of measuring deterrence and highlight the need for careful consideration of various factors before drawing conclusions about capital punishment’s effectiveness.