Research Papers

We conducted a field experiment to test theories of time-inconsistency, specifically the “Beta-Delta” model of present bias, in the context of saving decisions made by low-income tax filers.

We aimed to understand how present-biased preferences influence the decision to deposit tax refunds into illiquid accounts, providing insights into the tradeoff between immediate and delayed payments.

Our findings provide evidence of significant present bias in financial decisions, with an estimated annual discount rate of 164%, offering valuable implications for designing policies and interventions to encourage saving among low-income individuals.

We provide a systematic analysis of identification in linear social interactions models. We develop an incomplete information game that describes individual choices in the presence of social interactions.

The theoretical models used to study social interactions are distinct from the econometric environments in which identification is studied, while empirical work generally does not systematically exploit the implications of theory and econometrics for formulating data analyses. This paper aims to facilitate the integration of the theoretical, econometric, and empirical sides of the social interactions literature.

While the proposition that individuals are subject to social influence states the obvious, the study of social influences on individual behavior in economics is a relatively recent phenomenon. In the last two decades, however, a rich theoretical, econometric, and empirical literature in social economics, has emerged.

We investigated the mixed empirical evidence on the deterrent effect of capital punishment and potential explanations for these inconsistencies.

Our findings can contribute to the ongoing debate about capital punishment and inform policy decisions regarding its use as a criminal deterrent.

We shed light on the complexities of measuring deterrence and highlight the need for careful consideration of various factors before drawing conclusions about capital punishment’s effectiveness.

We identified potential methodological pitfalls in using time series analysis to study the relationship between capital punishment and crime rates.

We wanted to improve the quality of research on capital punishment and prevent misleading conclusions based on flawed methodology.

We encourage rigorous methods in research on capital punishment and highlight the importance of considering potential biases and confounding factors.

We critically reviewed the literature on model uncertainty and its implications for empirical policy analysis in economics.

Our goal was to raise awareness of the challenges posed by model uncertainty and promote robust methods for policy evaluation under such conditions.

We highlight the importance of acknowledging and addressing model uncertainty to ensure reliable and informative policy recommendations.

This paper examines how estimates of the deterrent effect of capital punishment depend on alternate choices of assumptions concerning the homicide process. We demonstrate how various assumptions have driven the conflicting findings from studies on capital punishment, and isolate a particular set of assumptions that are required to find a positive deterrent effect.

Results on the deterrent effect of capital punishment are disparate. This article is designed to understand the sources of the disparate literature findings. Specifically, we consider how different substantive assumptions about the homicide process affect deterrence effect estimates.

The effectiveness of capital punishment in deterring homicides has remained unclear despite the fact that the Supreme Court’s moratorium on capital punishment and the subsequent adoption of capital punishment by a subset of states, combined with very different rates of execution across polities, would appear to be an ideal environment for revealing deterrence effects using panel data methods.

We explored the implications of complexity theory for economics and public policy, considering how complex systems thinking can enhance policy analysis.

Our goal was to integrate insights from complexity theory into economic and policy analysis, providing a more realistic framework for understanding and addressing complex social and economic phenomena.

We contribute to advancing the application of complexity theory in policy analysis, offering a more robust and adaptable approach to addressing real-world challenges.

We examined the inertia in taxpayers’ adjustments to income tax prepayments following changes in tax liability, analyzing how taxpayers’ prepayments change over time.

We aimed to investigate why many US taxpayers receive income tax refunds and to explore the role of inertia in their tax prepayment behavior, beyond the previously suggested precautionary and forced savings motives.

Our findings indicate that default withholding rules significantly impact consumption smoothing, especially for low-income taxpayers, suggesting that policies around withholding can have broader economic implications than previously understood.

We investigated the observational implications of taste-based discrimination in racial profiling, considering how biases in law enforcement decisions may manifest in observed data.

We aimed to provide insights into the challenges of identifying and addressing taste-based discrimination in racial profiling through statistical and econometric analysis.

We contribute to the understanding of the complexities involved in studying and combating racial profiling, emphasizing the importance of careful empirical analysis.

We investigated the effects of long-term exposure to disadvantaged neighborhoods on high school graduation by following 4,154 children in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, measuring neighborhood context annually from age 1 to 17.

We aimed to address the gap in previous research that typically measures neighborhood context only once, failing to account for the duration of residence and understating the detrimental effects of long-term neighborhood disadvantage.

Our findings reveal that sustained exposure to disadvantaged neighborhoods significantly reduces the probability of high school graduation, with impacts larger than previously reported. For black children, graduation rates drop from 96% to 76%, and for nonblack children, from 95% to 87%. These results highlight the importance of addressing long-term neighborhood disadvantage to improve educational outcomes.